Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 8.857674 10.436426 12.172421 14.217173 16.553606 19.133776 22.192296
2025-01-26 6.945693 9.104856 11.697292 15.014616 19.119534 24.003370 30.221572
2025-02-02 5.668595 8.123259 11.291859 15.626183 21.336734 28.532503 38.203192
2025-02-09 4.821451 7.460334 11.083209 16.322816 23.590370 33.182119 46.638529
2025-02-16 3.985485 6.625403 10.462113 16.299291 24.777137 36.433026 53.409151
2025-02-23 3.224876 5.745764 9.614519 15.787987 25.145690 38.502286 58.626971
2025-03-02 2.604467 4.963362 8.777906 15.146034 25.191883 40.035170 63.104530
2025-03-09 2.235761 4.526660 8.407968 15.149964 26.160765 42.920516 69.665876
2025-03-16 1.942616 4.167512 8.107083 15.209270 27.186512 45.920829 76.544569
2025-03-23 1.684285 3.824881 7.781698 15.174778 28.029758 48.661314 83.155405
2025-03-30 1.394361 3.366171 7.181685 14.584222 27.872192 49.773074 87.245596
2025-04-06 1.222322 3.116278 6.932401 14.583703 28.701982 52.508198 94.051341
2025-04-13 1.064658 2.873258 6.672982 14.552094 29.502523 55.296915 101.204945
2025-04-20 1.007453 2.847954 6.847582 15.367604 31.896555 60.934856 113.420596
2025-04-27 0.937736 2.779939 6.923218 15.992180 33.980814 66.157211 125.210925
2025-05-04 0.881290 2.733854 7.038229 16.703095 36.274383 71.870305 138.127886
2025-05-11 0.777555 2.545013 6.811395 16.679152 37.143984 75.083836 146.850709
2025-05-18 0.656247 2.281532 6.375052 16.157520 36.981876 76.398557 152.267316
2025-05-25 0.545719 2.021172 5.904850 15.502517 36.483297 77.038399 156.474895
2025-06-01 0.484576 1.892735 5.737828 15.506528 37.329783 80.238596 165.481070
2025-06-08 0.433389 1.783211 5.602520 15.567044 38.293706 83.707552 175.138815
2025-06-15 0.384264 1.668163 5.435343 15.531849 39.044026 86.793514 184.212967
2025-06-22 0.320554 1.484992 5.053796 14.929222 38.498011 87.278177 188.355003